Detroit Lions Offseason Preview

Jan 9

Last night the Detroit Lions beat Aaron Rogers and the Green Bay Packers in Green Bay. They beat the Packers who were playing for a playoff spot while they were not. They beat them in primetime, outside, in January. This win technically did not mean anything as far as the outcome of the 2023 NFL season for the Lions, yet they went out there and they won.

The youngest team in the NFL that started the season 1-6 and had every coach and player under scrutiny from the media and fans ended up finishing the season with a winning record. A team that finished 3-13-1 and had the number 2 overall pick the previous year, wound up finishing the season 9-8. They finished 9-8 with the hardest strength of schedule in the NFL. You want to win every game obviously but their 8 losses were to the: Eagles, Vikings, Seahawks, Cowboys, Dolphins, Bills, Patriots, and Panthers. Those first 6 teams are playoff teams.

There were obviously some growing pains and tough losses. You also finished 5-1 in the division and had some impressive wins. Now they did not beat any team that I would consider a “Superbowl contender” but they did beat some good teams that are in the playoffs. Its a young team with promising young coaches, players, cap space, and high draft picks. Not to mention a GM that has made very few mistakes to this point. Here is what I would do this offseason.

Coaches

A coaching staff that at mid season everyone wanted to see dismantled now doesnt look that bad. The big concern here is losing guys now. Ben Johnson has proven himself as one of the best offensive coordinators in the NFL. Give him a raise. Keep him by any means necessary this offseason. He is a great building block for one of the NFLs best offenses.

Aaron Glenn really turned it around after a rough start. He is in fact a good defensive coordinator. He didnt have a lot to work with going into the season, and what he did have was young and raw. That certainly showed early in the season. Losing Tracy Walker against Minnesota early in the season was big and might have cost us that game. They need to improve the interior defensive line depth, linebackers, and outside corner spots. They do have guys to work with now though, and these young guys not only improved throughout the year but look like legitimate building blocks for the future. Good shit AG.

I hope all the “Fire Campbell” fans are happy we didnt. This guy is great and has this team moving in the right direction. More importantly he has built a team that guys WANT to play for. Not only do players want to play for him but we can now say he has been successful building a team. It hasnt been like that in the past. Thats big time moving forward for attracting new talent and keeping current talent on the roster.

Other then that Im not going to try and predict whos leaving. Im just going to leave it at lets try to keep as much of this staff in place and limit turnover. Love what we got here.

Current Roster

The good news is a lot of this roster is made up of young guys still on rookie deals with little to no bad contracts. The bad news, if you want to say that, is a lot of these “prove it” guys proved it. Its a good spot to be in.

Who We Bring Back

A lot of the guys Brad Holmes brought in ended up vastly outperforming expectations. Guys who are free agents that he brought in include: RB Justin Jackson, RB Jamaal Williams, WR DJ Chark, OG Evan Brown, LB Alex Anzalone, S Deshon Elliot, DL Isaiah Buggs, DL John Cominsky, and CB Mike Hughes.

John Cominsky we need to bring back he should be top priority. He is a versatile force on the defensive line. This guy is a must for this team. Isaiah Buggs was the biggest surprise to me. He seemed like a guy they just kind of brought in as an end of roster body for camp. He ended up being an animal against the run later in the season. He was one of the only two interior d-linemen that showed up this year, bring him back.

Deshon Elliot is a guy that I would like to see come back at the right price. He is a safety and I know there were some weird social media things with him where it seemed like he didnt want to be in Detroit. He did play well though, and would form a nice safety trio with Kerby Joseph and Tracy Walker. Only for the right price though

Lastly Jamaal Williams. Jamaal is another “at the right price” guy for me. He has been a huge locker room guy and really the heartbeat of the team. The issue is hes a running back and he is turning 28. Statistically guys start to fall apart at the position around this age. What he has working for him is he doesnt have a lot of tread on the tires (hes always shared carries with another guy) and he doesnt have an injury history (knock on wood). Running back is one of those positions though where you can just kind of throw guys back there and with a good offensive line it works i.e San Francisco. It helps though when you know what youve got and everyone loves you, and the Lions know what they got and everyone, including me, loves him. If you can get him back for a three year $5-6 million a year deal, I would do it. More then that for a running back would worry me.

Other then that I wouldnt mind if they brought those others guys back, but I wouldnt be investing long term or breaking the bank for them. There are also some Restricted free agents and Exclusive Rights free agents I would like to see back that can make a difference. These include Brock Wright and Tommy Kraemer.

Who We Let Go

None of these guys I know personally and Im not sure what their effect on the locker room is. Its part of the beast though that if your salary doesnt match your output you are probably out of a job.The Lions have few bad contracts, but here is who I would let go.

DL Michael Brockers: Brockers is the oldest player on the team at 33. He was also a healthy scratch basically the whole season. This cut saves $10 million with around $4 million in dead cap.

OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai: Vaitai is one of those big Bob Quinn free agency busts. He was brought in to play RT. Wasnt athletic enough so they moved him to G. He was an above average G but has never really been healthy. Its better to just cut ties at this point and save $6.5 million and take the $5.9 million cap hit.

EDGE Charles Harris: This is another easy one. He got a two year deal last year and barely played. The young guys have taken over this position. Save $4 million here.

EDGE Romeo Okwara: Im not 100% on getting rid of this guy, but he would have to take a pay cut at the minimum. Hes now a rotational guy, not a focal point. Cutting him saves $7.5 million. If you can get him to restructure and get his cap number down do it. If not hes gots to go.

Total Savings: $28 million

Free Agency

If we include all the guys we resign, and dont include restructuring some guys with larger contracts like Decker or Ragnow, then we are left with roughly $35-40 million for for free agency. With restructures we could get closer to around $60 million. Now Im not going to pretend to know who wants to come to Detroit and whos going to be resigned or franchise tagged by other teams. Im not gonna say were gonna go out and get this guy and that guy. Here are some suggestions/options I would like to see explored though.

QB: I know, I know, I know… Jared Goff. Do I believe he is our long term savior? Our guy at QB? I dont think so, but he is our guy for the foreseeable future. For this team to take the next step they need a guy that can run and hit Jameson Williams on deep balls. Also he was good down the stretch with turnovers, but it has been in issue in the past, and its the reason the Rams sent him to the Lions in the first place. What we can do is bring in a guy with promise to back him up, and I know everyone wants to see a guy drafted but more on that later. How about if we bring in a guy like Sam Darnold? Hear me out. Hes athletically gifted. He plays his ass off. The Panthers almost made the playoffs when he took over, and last year were 3-0 before he went down. If you can bring in a guy like that on a 2 year $8-10 million deal to be a talented backup then why not?

Other notable options: Gardner Minshew, Taylor Heinicke, Baker Mayfield

RB: This is completely reliant on if we bring Jamaal back or not. Its just one of those positions where you can find guys all over the place if they fit your style. If its not Jamaal how about a guy like Kareem Hunt? He fits. Im not sure if he would be more or less expensive. This is all speculative, but, it would be cool

Other notable options: Rashaad Penny, Ronald Jones

WR: Not a big deal here. Maybe draft a guy

TE: This is an interesting position. I like Wright and Mitchell, Im not gonna lie to you. I think they both continue to grow. Maybe you can get a deal on an Irv Smith or Austin Hooper. I surprisingly think we are ok here.

OL: 4 of the 5 spots on the line are set. I like the idea of bringing back Evan Brown and Tommy Kraemer (who was on IR all last year). Former first round pick Isaiah Wynn could be a good fit to move inside to guard at a discount. I trust Brad Holmes here and Im not saying Wynn comes in and starts, but hes versatile, young, and would compete.

Defense: For the sake of time and all this being speculation fits Im gonna let you know a guy I would like to see at the positions we need. This defense needs to upgrade: Interior D-line, Linebacker, and Outside Corner.

DL: We need help here. If Da’Ron Payne from Washington isnt franchise tagged, he would be a really good fit. Hes an interior guy that can get after the passer (11.5 sacks). Hes young. He went to Bama. Hes a dawg. Immediate upgrade.

LB: Im actually a really big fan of quite a few of the linebackers in the draft. I also really like our guys on the roster like Malcolm Rodriguez and Derrick Barnes. I also think its possible they bring back Alex Anzalone on a similar deal to what he played on this year. Lots of options at this position. If you can bring in a guy like Tremaine Edmunds from the Buffalo Bills do it. Im not sure if hes gonna be there but if is and hes interested sign him.

Other notable options: TJ Edwards, Drue Tranquill

CB: This position needs a lot of help. I think Jeff Okudah would be a really good nickel corner. I also wouldnt blame them for moving on from him, but I think you keep him. Jerry Jacobs is another guy that I would keep, and Mike Hughes would be worth bringing back on a similar deal. After that I would just start throwing darts at free agency. Heres a list of guys I would throw darts at: Greedy Williams, Sidney Jones, Byron Murphy, Sean Bunting, and Jamel Dean. Sign two or three of these, draft one, and we are cooking with fire.

The NFL Draft

GM Brad Holmes is one of the best in the biz at this. Whatever he decides to do Im gonna trust him. One of the keys to free agency is to come out of it with a team thats ready to play and then from there you add in the draft. I will be doing a mock draft closer to the actual draft (which I will be attending again in Kansas City this year), so Im not gonna try and predict picks here 4 months before the draft process has played out. Instead Ill give you Detroits top 3 needs and guys that I like right now.

1) CB: The top guy here I think is Kelee Ringo out of Georgia. Hes tall, fast, played at a big time program. He does get a lot of PIs which worries me, but could develop. (Side note on Ringo: I met his mom at the draft last year. She is one of the nicest and low key most attractive humans I have ever met). Joey Porter Jr. (Penn St), Christian Gonzales (Oregon), Cam Smith (South Carolina), Clark Phillips (Utah), and Devon Witherspoon (Illinois) I think are all possible first round corners. Lots of talent in this class. Heres my sleeper that I think will probably go 4th round or so, Riley Moss out of Iowa. Listen, this guy will be the first white corner to be a perennial starter in the NFL in a VERY long time. You heard it here first. I love Riley Moss (as a player). If we can get one of these top guys early and Moss later, with the 2-3 of the possible free agents I highlighted and bringing back Okudah and Jacobs (and maybe Hughes) I would feel really good about this position headed into next year.

2) LB: There are two guys here I really want. Drew Sanders (Arkansas) is an Alabama transfer who was very highly recruited. Big linebacker at 6’5” 235 pounds. Can rush the QB with 9.5 sacks this year. I like him a lot. Also “Captain” Jack Campbell (Iowa). Another big linebacker (6’5” 243 pounds) and is everywhere. Here are his stats the last two years at one of the best defenses in the country: 265 tackles, 8.5 TFLs, 2 sacks, 7 pass deflections, 4 INTs, 2 FF, 3 FR). Dudes an animal. He feels like he would be a Dan Campbell playing on the defensive side of the ball. Lets not forget that Penei Sewells brother Noah Sewell will be in this draft and could possibly slip a bit after a down year, but he is a thick linebacker at 6’2” 260 pounds. In my dream scenario we get two of this guys. Two of the three added to Rodriguez and Barnes is a good group.

3) QB: So, Goff is the starter. We bring in Darnold (theoretically) as a high upside backup. Theres two guys in this draft class that would be worth taking if they slip into day 2. I would also like it to be known I am nowhere near a QB expert and this is just my opinion based off what I have seen. I will admit that I thought Josh Rosen was going to be a really good pro QB so do with that what you will. Im not saying its going to happen, but if it does then take them. Will Levis (Kentucky) and Anthony Richardson (Florida) are two guys that I think need to sit for AT LEAST a year. People are much higher on Levis then Richardson, but I think Levis’ ceiling is Alex Smith. Which if you can get it in the second round is amazing value. Now Anthony Richardson is being compared to a more athletic version of Josh Allen. Not Josh Allen now. Josh Allen when he was drafted. The question is if hes going to be able to put in the work to maximize that. I dont know Richardson personally but he can do it, and if he does it hes going to be a steal. If these guys do not slip. If the dream scenario does not play out, its ok. We have Goff and a theoretical Darnold, and next years draft is what I think will be possibly the deepest QB draft of all time (Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, JJ McCarthy, Quinn Ewers, Michael Pennix, Grayson Mccall, Sam Hartman, Bo Nix, Joe Milton, DJ Uiagalelei, KJ Jefferson, Tyler Van Dyke, Cam Rising, Jayden Daniels, Jordan Travis, Devin Leary, Spencer Rattler, etc.) Not saying all these guys are homeruns but theres things to like about literally all these guys.

Conclusion

Not saying this is what is going to happen. It is a possibility though. This would be a 10/10 offseason in my eyes. This is in a perfect world though. There are a million variables and still so much to go through. No matter what though the tools are there for this to be a huge offseason for this team. Brad Holmes has so much to work with and has done such a great job the past two years. Lots to look forward to.

Kohler Smith