College Football Picks Week 12

Last week we went a very solid 18-14-1. Anytime you have a record over 50% its a good week and we are 2-0-1 on that. Where we need improvement is on the locks of the week. I may try something different this week. We are at 0-3-1 there after getting a push last week. A push is better then a loss but it is not as good as a win so theres that.

Oregon losing to Washington and UCLA losing to Arizona really hurt the stakes for this week. We couldve been set up for a huge week in the Pac 12 with a high ranked Oregon vs a high ranked Utah team, as well as a high ranked USC vs a high ranked UCLA team, but due to the losses USC is the only one of those four teams that MIGHT have a chance at the playoff. Could there be more of a case for a 12 team playoff then this?

The big games this week are #4 TCU @ Baylor?, #1 UGA @ Kentucky?, #7 USC @ #16 UCLA, and #10 Utah @ #12 Oregon. Not an impressive slate. Not a lot of games that will effect playoff implications, pending upsets.

Big Games

#4 TCU (-2.5) @ Baylor O/U 57.5

TCU was one of the big surprises, to me, at least. I thought no way they beat Texas at home, yet here we are. Now Baylor is a tough team at home, and a strong program. I just cant bet against TCU after what happened last weekend.

TAKE: TCU (-2.5) and Over 57.5

#1 UGA (-22.5) @ Kentucky O/U 48

Its tough to call this a big game with the way Kentucky has been playing. What I do think is that Kentucky treats this as their Natty or SEC championship game, or whatever. I know I said that Will Levis’ statement game was two weeks ago against Tennessee, but those black jerseys at home, Tennessee wasnt losing that one. So I think Will Levis shows up for this one. If he doesnt then I think his draft stock should take a hit to the second round of the NFL draft. So I think Kentucky keeps it close and that this one is kind of a defensive struggle. Take the points.

TAKE: UK (+22.5) and U 48

#7 USC (-2.5) @ #16 UCLA O/U 76.5

This may be the toughest game of the slate, and probably the game of the week. This is a cross town rivalry, and UCLA fans dont show out. So I dont count this as a true away game for USC. Now USC RB Travis Dye is looking like he is out for this game, and he has been leaned on a lot in the running game for USC. Also though UCLA at home last week lost to Arizona. Arizona is a team USC beat by 12 @ Zona. Neither team plays defense, so look for a lot of points. Heres a name for you if Dye doesnt play for USC, Raleek Brown. He was a top ranked RB last year and this may be his time to shine. Hes a fast dual threat guy, think Reggie Bush.

TAKE: USC (-2.5) and Over 76.5

#10 Utah (-2.5) @ #12 Oregon O/U 60.5

Oregon was my other big let down last week. Losing to Washington at home? Why? How? Bo Nix was supposed to be the truth. I think that Oregon wins this one so take the points. Cam Rising is a good QB for Utah. Points will be scored so this total is low to me. I checked the weather and it looks like its gonna be nice. I think points are scored and Oregon pulls it out.

TAKE: Oregon (+2.5) and Over 60.5

Lock of the Week

Michigan (-17.5) vs Illinois

I know Michigan pushed last week, but we are looking at an Illinois team that may be shorthanded their best player, RB Chase Brown. Illinois has dropped two consecutive games at home against Michigan State and Purdue. They are not playing well. Michigan is rolling. I would take this all the way up to -26.5 at +255 odds. but to get on the board with my locks of the week we will take this.

Upset Parlay

Upset parlay is now 1-2 and missed by just one play last week. Ole Miss just choked that one away against Bama. This week I feel real good about this one.These are all ML picks.

OkSt (+245) @ Oklahoma

KU (+275) vs Texas

UCONN (+310) vs Army

Total Odds: +5204

Picks ATS I Like

TCU (-2.5) @ Baylor

UCF (-16.5) vs Navy

Michigan (-17.5) vs Illinois

FSU (-24) vs Louisiana

Liberty (-10) vs Va Tech

JMU (-9) vs GA St

Hou (+6) @ ECU

UCONN (+10) @ Army

WVU (+7.5) vs K-State

ND (-21) vs BC

UK (+22.5) vs UGA

Maryland (+27.5) vs OSU

PSU (-19) @ Rutgers

KU (+9) vs Texas

Tenn (-22) @ South Carolina

TTU (+3.5) @ ISU

Ole Miss (-2.5) @ Ark

USC (-2.5) @ UCLA

LSU (-15.5) vs UAB

Oregon (+2.5) vs Utah

Over/Unders I Like

Navy/UCF O 52.5

Illi/Mich O 41

TCU/Baylor O 57.5

Hou/ECU O 67.5

KSU/WVU O 54.5

Wazzu/Zona O 63

BC/ND U 43

UGA/UK U 48.5

OSU/Maryland O 63

Texas/KU O 63.5

OkSt/OU O 66

Tenn/South Carolina U66

Utah/Oreg O 60.5

USC/UCLA O 76.5

Overall Record: 39-31-1 (55%)