College Football Picks Week 11
Ok so my locks of the week are 0-3 so I need to straighten that up. The good news is the upset parlay is 1-1. If you put $100 on it last week you made $1,169. More good news if you exclude the 0-3 locks of the week, I did go 15-9 (63%) last week and am 21-14 (60%) overall. Thats pretty good odds. So take the locks of the week with a grain of salt but the rest of the bets have been pretty hot.
This week does not have a whole lot of big games with big impact on the landscape of the playoff. Not as much as last week. Things are ramping up for rivalry week in two weeks. There are still some good games this week though (Texas v TCU, Oregon v Washington, Ole Miss v Bama). Heres what we got
Big Games
Texas vs. TCU (+7) O/U 65
Texas has three close losses in games they should have lost (Bama, @TTU, @OkSt). Quinn Ewers sometimes looks like hes going to be the next number 1 overall pick and at times looks like hes still trying to figure it out, and thats ok. Its ok because he has Bijan Robinson. Besides Blake Corum there probably isnt a better running back in the country right now. TCUs QB Max Duggan is having a great year under first year coach Sunny Dykes, but I think this is their toughest game. Its a Texas team that is coming up and kinda needs this win at home for coach Steve Sarkisian. I like Texas to get a solid 10-14 point win in this one.
TAKE: Texas (-7) and Over 65
Ole Miss vs. Alabama (-12) O/U 64
Bama is not Bama this year. They still recruit at a high level. They still have a QB thats won a Heisman. They have a defensive player that will be the top defensive player taken in the draft. 5 star recruits all over this roster. Big times transfers filling in the gaps. Im not sure whats up but they dont play well on the road, and have had a few close ones against bad teams. Ole Miss is a pretty good team. I do think Bama wins this one. But I think Lane Kiffin and crew keep it close and run the ball.
TAKE: Ole Miss (+12) and Under 64
Oregon(-13.5) vs. Washington O/U 72.5
Oregon is rolling. Bo Nix all of the sudden looks like a QB. Its weird. They run the ball and are efficient passing. Now Washington has been up and down with Indiana transfer QB Michael Penix back there but he is putting up numbers. The Huskies have two solid receivers, but this games at Autzen stadium in Eugene, Oregon. Very tough place to play, ask UCLA. If the Ducks want to make the playoff they need to handle business in this one. I think the advantage of playing at home in a tough place to play gets them the cover.
TAKE: Oregon (-13.5)
LOCK of the Week
Michigan (-31) vs. Nebraska
31 is a big number, but this is going to be a good blood bath. Im watching this one with my buddy Chico (Chee-ko) who is a Nebraska grad, and he will be black out drunk by halftime. Starting QB Casey Thompson is still out for Nebraska. Michigan plays really good defense and knows they need to roll leading up to the Ohio State game. Keep in mind my locks of the week are 0-3. Hoping this gets me on the board.
Upset Parlay
The upset parlay hit last week (Florida, Baylor, Notre Dame all ML). Pretty exciting stuff. Heres what were rolling with this week:
Purdue (ML +195) @ Illinois
Ole Miss (ML +330) vs Alabama
North Carolina (ML +148) vs Wake Forest
Total Odds: +3045
Picks ATS I Like
Ohio State (-41) vs Indiana
Tennessee (-21) vs Mizzou
West Virginia (+8) vs Oklahoma
OD (+8) vs JMU
Louisville (+7) @ Clemson
Tulane (-1.5) vs UCF
UGA (-17) @ Miss St
K-State (+2.5) @ Baylor
UNC (+3.5) @ Wake
Texas (+7) vs TCU
Ole Miss (+12) vs Bama
Marshall (+1) vs App St
OkSt (+1.5) vs ISU
Michigan (-31) vs Nebraska
Florida (-8) vs South Carolina
Kansas (+3.5) @ TTU
Oregon (-13.5) vs Washington
LSU (-3.5) @ Arkansas
Over/Unders I Like
OSU vs IU O 58
WVU vs OU O 66.5
Louisville vs Clemson O 52
Baylor vs K-State O 52.5
Texas vs TCU O 65
Ole Miss vs Bama U 64
Michigan vs Nebraska O 48.5
Florida vs South Carolina U 59
TTU vs KU O 65
Arkansas vs LSU U 63.5
Notre Dame vs Navy O 40
Pitt vs UVA O 40.5
SMU vs USF O 71.5
Wisconsin vs Iowa O 35